In July, the headline inflation rate rose by 2.7% year-over-year, remaining unchanged from June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics This Week in Real Estate. Meanwhile, core inflation accelerated, posting its largest monthly increase (0.3%) since January and its fastest annual pace (3.1%) since February. A significant component of core inflation is housing, which continues to show signs of moderation. Shelter costs increased 3.7% year-over-year, matching the lowest annual growth rate since October 2021. Despite core inflation rising to its highest level since February, mortgage rates declined for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a new low for 2025. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.58%, down from 6.63% the previous week, marking the lowest level since October 2024. Should economic indicators continue to soften and if inflation remains contained, further rate improvements may be possible. While 2024 saw a rebound in new home construction, momentum has slowed in 2025. Single-family building permits declined for the sixth consecutive month in June, falling 5.6% year-over-year, as reported by the National Association of Home Builders. Below are key events from the second week of August impacting our business:
CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.7% ANNUALLY IN JULY, LESS THAN EXPECTED AMID TARIFF WORRIES. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago. The monthly core rate was the biggest increase since January while the annual rate was the highest since February. A 0.2% increase in shelter costs drove much of the rise in the index. Futures market pricing is pointing strongly to a Fed rate cut in September. Fed officials of late have been expressing increasing levels of concern about the labor market, which would bode for rate reductions. Traders increased the implied odds for a September move following the release, and also put the chances of another reduction in October at about 67%, up from 55% the day before, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Read the full story here.
AVERAGE RATE ON A 30-YEAR MORTGAGE DROPS TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE OCTOBER. The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage fell this week to its lowest level in nearly 10 months. The long-term rate fell to 6.58% from 6.63% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.49%. This is the fourth week in a row that rates have come down. The latest average rate on a 30-year mortgage is now at its lowest level since Oct. 24, when it averaged 6.54%. Economists generally expect the average rate on a 30-year mortgage to remain above 6% this year. Recent forecasts by Realtor.com and Fannie Mae project the average rate will ease to around 6.4% by the end of this year. Read the full story here.
JUNE SINGLE-FAMILY PERMITS SLUMP, MULTIFAMILY GAINS. Single-family housing permits continued a downhill trend for the sixth month in a row. Builders appear cautious amid economic uncertainty, labor constraints, and rising inventories. Over the first six months of 2025, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 485,935. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a decline of 5.6% over the June 2024 level of 514,728. Year-to-date ending in June, single-family permits were up in one out of the four regions. The Midwest posted a small increase of 1.8%. The Northeast was 1.7% lower, the South was down by 6.5%, and the West was down by 8.1% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily, the total number of permits issued nationwide reached 244,812. This is 2.9% higher compared to the June 2024 level of 237,935. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted increases. The Midwest was up by 22.4%, the West was up by 8.0%, and the South was up by 7.1%, Meanwhile, the Northeast declined steeply by 30.0%, driven by the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ MSA which declined by 40.0%. Read the full story here.
Take advantage of superior service and the convenience of one-stop shopping for the best loan and insurance coverage to fit your needs. Home warranty coverage is available through America’s #1 home warranty company, American Home Shield.
