As The Weather Heats Up Interest Rates Cool

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The National Association of Realtors released an updated forecast This Week in Real Estate projecting a 4.2% year-over-year increase in existing-home sales, with the median existing-home price anticipated to set a new annual record, rising by 4% compared to the previous year. The report also noted a 2.1% month-over-month decrease in May’s pending home sales. Freddie Mac indicated a continued downward trend in mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropping for the fourth consecutive week, reaching its lowest point since early April. “By historical standards, the economy is in good shape, and we expect rates to continue to come down over the summer months,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac. The Conference Board revealed a dip in consumer confidence in June, yet the sentiment remains consistent with the trends observed over the past two years. This is supported by sustained optimism regarding the current state of the labor market. Below are a few newsworthy events from the fourth week of June that influence our business:  
PENDING HOME SALES DROPPED 2.1% IN MAY. Pending home sales in May slipped 2.1%, according to the National Association of REALTORS. Year-over-year, pending transactions were down 6.6%. The association forecasts that existing-home sales will rise to 4.26 million in 2024 (from 4.09 million 2023) and to 4.92 million in 2025 (from 2024). Housing starts are expected to rise to 1.382 million in 2024 (from 1.413 million in 2023) and to 1.492 million in 2025 (from 2024). NAR anticipates the median existing-home price will increase to a record annual high of $405,300 in 2024 (from $389,800 in 2023) and to $412,000 in 2025 (from 2024). NAR predicts mortgage rates will remain above 6% in 2024 and 2025, even with the Federal Reserve cuts to the Fed Funds rate. “The first half of the year did not meet expectations regarding home sales but exceeded expectations related to home prices,” explained Yun. “In the second half of 2024, look for moderately lower mortgage rates, higher home sales and stabilizing home prices.” Read the full story here.
US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RETREATS SLIGHTLY; HOUSE PRICES REMAIN ELEVATED. U.S. consumer confidence eased in June amid worries about the economic outlook, but households remained upbeat about the labor market and expected inflation to moderate over the next year. “The mild decrease in confidence isn’t consequential and we think there are sufficient tailwinds to keep consumers spending,” said Oren Klachkin, financial market economist at Nationwide. “The economy is on a glide path to normalized conditions.” The drop in confidence was concentrated in the 35-54 age group. Confidence improved among consumers under 35 and those 55 years and older. “Confidence remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in current labor market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Read the full story here.
MORTGAGE RATES DECLINE FOR FOURTH STRAIGHT WEEK. The national average on the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage inched down to 6.86% from 6.87% a week prior, according to Freddie Mac’s report published on Thursday. Rates have declined for four consecutive weeks and are at the lowest since April. “We are probably going to see rates decline slowly from here through the end of the year,” Joel Kan, deputy chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, told Yahoo Finance.  The Mortgage Bankers Association is currently predicting the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark federal funds rate twice in 2024, lowering mortgage rates to around 6.5% by the end of this year. “I think the odds are still fluctuating, but that’s the base case,” Kan said, citing improving inflation data as the primary driver for potential falling interest rates. Financing demand stayed flat last week. The MBA’s Market Composite Index, which tracks weekly mortgage loan application volume, increased by less than 1%. Read the full story here.


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