The U.S. job market continues to demonstrate unexpected strength. According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics This Week in Real Estate, employers added 147,000 jobs in June, significantly surpassing the projected 117,500 net job gains, contributing to a decline in the national unemployment rate of 4.1%. Since January 2021, the U.S. job market has experienced 54 consecutive months of job growth, marking the third-longest streak of employment expansion in recorded history. With unemployment remaining historically low, healthy job creation, and wage growth outpacing inflation, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain its current policy stance. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool places the probability of a rate cut at just 5% for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, reflecting the Fed’s cautious approach amid a still-strong labor market. Mortgage rates continued their downward trend. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell for the fifth consecutive week, averaging 6.67%, down from 6.77% the previous week. This marks the largest weekly decline since early March and represents a 28-basis-point improvement compared to the same period last year. Below are key events from the first week of July impacting our business:
SOLID JOB GROWTH IN JUNE. The U.S. labor market continued to show resilience in June, with steady job gains led by state/local government and health care sectors. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, signaling ongoing strength in hiring despite persistent economic uncertainty. However, there were some indications that the headline number overstated the health of the labor market, including slowing wage growth and much of the job gains concentrated in state/local government. In June, wage growth slowed. Year-over-year, wages grew at a 3.7% rate, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Wage growth has been outpacing inflation for nearly two years, which typically occurs as productivity increases. According to the Employment Situation Summary reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 147,000 in June, following an upwardly revised increase of 144,000 jobs in May. In 2025, monthly employment growth has averaged 124,000, compared with the 168,000 monthly average gain for 2024. Read the full story here.
MORTGAGE RATES FALL FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT WEEK, LOWEST SINCE MID-APRIL. Mortgage rates fell for the fifth consecutive week to the lowest level since mid-April, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday, showed that the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.67% from last week’s reading of 6.77%. The average rate on a 30-year loan was 6.95% a year ago. “This is the largest weekly decline since early March,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Declining mortgage rates are encouraging and, while overall affordability challenges remain, we are seeing more sellers enter the market giving prospective buyers an advantage.” Read the full story here.
HOME EQUITY CUSHIONS HOMEOWNERS AGAINST ECONOMIC SHOCKS. The most recent National Mortgage Database (NMDB) Aggregate Statistics report from FHFA reveals the significant amount of home equity that American households possess. 82.6% of homeowners in America have at least 30% of equity in their homes. Because we haven’t experienced a massive credit housing boom in the past 14 years, we simply can’t replicate the debt expansion or the cash-out debt expansion that was common in the run-up from 2002 to 2005, with mortgage credit demand. As a result, households that have lived in their homes for an extended period have accumulated substantial home equity, enabling them to sell and purchase another home if they choose to do so. The loan-to-value ratio for American households is very low. Currently, we are at 46.9%. From 2008 to 2012, it increased to around 85% and remained at this level for several years. What is often overlooked in housing economics is that the percentage of down payments decreased from 2001 to 2008, meaning American households were putting less money down for their home purchases. In contrast, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that down payments have been steadily increasing for many years. Unlike the 2008 housing crisis, where many homeowners had adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) that were set to increase their payments to unsustainable levels, today’s mortgage market predominantly features fixed-rate loans with 30-year terms. Although the percentage of loans with mortgage rates above 6% is rising, the current loan structures mean that we will not see the same recasting of payments that we experienced in the past. As housing tenure increases, households with fixed long-term debt costs and rising wages tend to have better financial situations. This trend reflects the advantages of having a 30-year fixed mortgage, as it allows for predictable debt costs while benefiting from increasing wages. The current equity and debt landscape is significantly better than what we experienced during the historic housing bubble crash. The benefits of the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform Law and the 2010 Qualified Mortgage Law continue to impact us today and will do so for many decades to come. Read the full story here.
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