U.S. Job Market Continues To Surpass Expectations. The resilient U.S. job market continues to surpass expectations, with the economy adding 177,000 jobs in April, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics This Week in Real Estate. Since January 2021, the U.S. job market has experienced 52 consecutive months of job growth, marking the third-longest period of employment expansion on record. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, a historically low level. According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales increased by 6.1% in March compared to the previous month, driven by a decline in mortgage rates. This represents the largest month-over-month increase since December 2023. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in March was 6.65%, down from 6.96% in January and 6.84% in February. On a year-over-year basis, pending transactions were down 0.6%. Mortgage interest rates continued their downward trend, falling for the second consecutive week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage decreased by 5 basis points from the prior week to 6.76%, according to Freddie Mac. Rates for the 30-year fixed mortgage have decreased by approximately 13 basis points over the past 12 weeks and over 45 basis points from a year ago, marking the largest year-over-year drop since November 2024. Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group released a revised Economic and Housing Outlook, adjusting its forecast for home sales in 2025 to 4.86 million, down from the previous forecast of 4.95 million. Home prices are expected to rise by 4.1% in 2025, slightly higher than the previous quarter’s forecast of 3.5%. The forecast for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now 6.2% at the end of 2025 and 6.0% in 2026, down from the previous projections of 6.3% and 6.2%, respectively. Below are key events from the final week of April impacting our business:
U.S. PAYROLL GROWTH TOTALS 177,000 IN APRIL, DEFYING EXPECTATIONS. Job growth was stronger than expected in April despite worries over the impact of President Donald Trump’s blanket tariffs against U.S. trading partners. Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 177,000 for the month, slightly below the downwardly revised 185,000 in March but above the Dow Jones estimate for 133,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, as expected, indicating that the labor market is holding relatively stable. The strong report led traders to push out expectations for an interest rate cut until July, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge of futures pricing. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold its benchmark short-term borrowing rate steady at the meeting, though they are pricing in a quarter percentage point cut in July with two or three more to follow by the end of the year. Read the full story here.
FORECAST FOR HOUSING ACTIVITY REVISED SLIGHTLY IN APRIL OUTLOOK. Single-family home sales are expected to close 2025 at 4.86 million units, and new single-family construction is expected to total approximately 964,000 units this year, according to the April 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. Revisions to the housing forecast were driven by a combination of recent actuals and adjustments to the ESR Group’s expectations for the macroeconomy, including economic growth, which is forecast at 0.5% for full-year 2025 and 1.9% for 2026. The ESR Group expects mortgage rates to end 2025 at 6.2% and 2026 at 6.0%, and projects home prices, as measured by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index, will rise 4.1% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Read the full story here.
US PENDING HOME SALES POST BIGGEST GAIN IN MORE THAN A YEAR. Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes surged by the most in more than a year in March, boosted by a decline in mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Wednesday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, jumped 6.1% to 76.5 last month. The increase was the largest since December 2023. “While contract signings are not a guarantee of eventual closings, the solid rise in pending home sales implies a sizable build-up of potential homebuyers, fueled by ongoing job growth,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist. The rate on the popular 30-year fixed-mortgage dropped to 6.65% in March from 7.04% in mid-January, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. Read the full story here.
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