Despite emerging indicators of a cooling labor market, the U.S. employment landscape continues to exhibit notable resilience. According to the May Employment Situation Summary released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics This Week in Real Estate, the U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs – surpassing expectations of approximately 120,000. However, this figure represents a modest decline from the revised 147,000 jobs added in April. The national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, holding near historically low levels. Since January 2021, the labor market has recorded 53 consecutive months of job growth, marking the third-longest streak of employment expansion on record. In 2025, monthly job gains have averaged 124,000, compared to an average of 168,000 per month in 2024. In the mortgage sector, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined to 6.85% last week, down from 6.89% the previous week. This marks the first weekly decrease since the week of May 1 and reflects a 14-basis-point drop compared to the same period last year. Below are key events from the first week of June impacting our business:
U.S. PAYROLLS INCREASED 139,000 IN MAY, MORE THAN EXPECTED. Hiring decreased just slightly in May even as consumers and companies braced against tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and a bit below the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. “Stronger than expected jobs growth and stable unemployment underlines the resilience of the US labor market in the face of recent shocks,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Most indicators show that the economy is still a good distance from recession. But sentiment surveys indicate high degrees of anxiety from both consumers and business leaders as they brace for the ultimate impact of how much tariffs will slow business activity and increase inflation. The central bank holds its next policy meeting in less than two weeks, with markets largely expecting the Fed to stay on hold regarding interest rates. In recent speeches, policymakers have indicated greater concern with the potential for tariff-induced inflation. “With the Fed laser-focused on managing the risks to the inflation side of its mandate, today’s stronger than expected jobs report will do little to alter its patient approach,” said Rosner, the Goldman Sachs strategist. Read the full story here.
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS DIP IN MAY AMID REFINANCE SLOWDOWN. Mortgage loan applications declined in May, driven by a drop for refinancing activity. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey, the Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage application volume, fell 5.5% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. Despite the monthly dip, application volume remains 23.7% higher than in May 2024. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose for the second consecutive month, climbing 10 basis points to 6.9%. Purchase activity remained resilient, posting a modest 1.3% monthly gain from the previous month, while the Refinance Index declined 13.7% (SA). Compared to a year ago, mortgage rates are still 18 basis points lower, with purchase and refinance applications up 15.8% and 39.8%, respectively. Read the full story here.
AVERAGE RATE ON A 30-YEAR MORTGAGE IN THE US FALLS TO 6.85%, FIRST DECLINE IN A MONTH. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage in the U.S. fell this week for the first time in a month. The long-term rate dipped to 6.85% from 6.89% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.99%. Bond yields have retreated the past week but broadly have been trending higher since hitting 2025 lows in early April, reflecting investors’ uncertainty over the Trump administration’s ever-changing tariffs policy and worry over exploding federal government debt. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.38% in midday trading Thursday, down from 4.54% a week ago. Read the full story here.
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